Table 1

Efficacy prediction for the virtual patient cohort generated based on calibrated parameter distribution

VariableNab-paclitaxelAtezolizumab/nab-paclitaxel
Response
Number of virtual patients450450
Objective response
No. of patients (median)209266
% of patient (95 bootstrap percentile)46.4 (41.0–52.0)59.1 (53.2–64.7)
Complete response
No. of patients (median)911
% of patient (95 bootstrap percentile)2.0 (0.7–3.9)2.4 (0.9–4.4)
Partial response
No. of patients (median)200255
% of patient (95 bootstrap percentile)44.4 (38.9–50.7)56.7 (50.6–62.2)
Stable disease
No. of patients (median)138106
% of patient (95 bootstrap percentile)30.7 (25.7–36.2)23.6 (18.7–28.2)
Progressive disease
No. of patients (median)10378
% of patient (95 bootstrap percentile)22.9 (18.2–27.6)17.3 (13.1–21.6)
Duration of response
Number of virtual patients209266
Median duration of response in months
(95 bootstrap percentile)
5.6 (5.6–7.5)7.5 (5.6–9.3)
No. of virtual patients with ongoing response after 400 days of treatment in model simulations (%)69 (33.2)87 (32.7)
  • Bootstrap median and CIs are reported.