Risk assessment in localized primary cutaneous melanoma: a Southwest Oncology Group study evaluating nine factors and a test of the Clark logistic regression prediction model

Am J Clin Pathol. 2002 Oct;118(4):504-11. doi: 10.1309/WBF7-N8KH-71KT-RVQ9.

Abstract

We studied 9 clinical and pathologic factors in 259 patients using Cox model regression analysis to determine which factors have independent predictive value. Median follow-up time in all patients still alive was 12.3 years (range, 1.7 to 16.7 years). Tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (P = .005), primary site (P = .006), and thickness (P = .02) had independent predictive value. Ulceration (P = .06) and age (P = .07) had marginal value. We used 6 of those factors to test the Clark logistic regression prediction model, which accurately predicted 8-year survival in 121 (72.9%) of 166 patients and accurately predicted melanoma-specific mortality in 32 (43%) of 74 patients. The combined or overall accuracy of the Clark model was only 64%.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.
  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Female
  • Humans
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Melanoma / mortality
  • Melanoma / pathology*
  • Middle Aged
  • Prognosis
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Risk Assessment
  • Skin Neoplasms / mortality
  • Skin Neoplasms / pathology*
  • Survival Analysis
  • Survival Rate